Adweek & The Future of the Open Web!

AdWeek NYC started with a bang. Evene before landing listening to two essential podcasts on my flight over had my mind spinning: Marketecture ( Ari Paparo and Eric Franchi with Alan Chapell ) and AdTech AdTalk ( Adam Heimlich and Gareth Glaser ). Both shows are absolute must-listens for anyone trying to understand where this industry is actually headed.

For the open web is in trouble. Since landing, I've had an incredible number of meetings and conversations that have helped crystallize where we're at. There's a lot to unpack about AI (saving that for a future post), but right now I want to focus on how this curates egg (the open web) is doing. No other section of the media landscape gets more column inches for such a modest market share (way under 10pc?). Yet it is still this sector that helps pay for much of the journalism our society depends on.

The Stockholm Syndrome is Real

As I've long suspected, a major Google breakup looks increasingly unlikely. The WikiHow CEO Elizabeth Douglas' testimony at the hearing perfectly captured the paradox: Google may have helped wreck the ecosystem, but it can't be easily or painlessly removed either. The publisher testified that an AdX spinout would be a "hazard to the future of her business", didn't have the bandwidth for new integrations and frankly stated the take rate didn't matter because bids are "net to her anyway."

Yet her biggest worry? Google's AI overviews destroying her business. Google is simultaneously her lifeline and her executioner. This kinda sums up the open web view in NYC so far this week.

DV360 and TTD Aren't Really Competing

Here's what became clear: DV360 and The Trade Desk aren't actually in direct competition for the same inventory. TTD can't access YouTube. DV360 only buys a small amount from open web exchanges (as per the court case) it's largely an internal Google buying loop for YouTube and Adx. These two systems are for the most part not competing for the same bids. I can't wait for Jeff Green on the Adtalk podcast Friday!

And when you look around? Meta no longer buys much from the open web despite having the perfect platform for it—measurement, testing, ad formats that actually work. They've retreated to their walled garden. Have more than enough inventory for their (huge) demand.

Then there's AppLovin, which is having a rough week (An SEC data probe). Never my favourite company, but you can't knock the numbers. They have a different approach to most on how to show engagement and conversion. Its not to my taste but it does highlight the need for the openweb to demonstrate outcomes if its going to compete.

It makes you think. Is a advanced, hard to use DSP / SSP combo really the right way to buy buy, and measure, display?

Outcomes: The Watchword of AdWeek

"Outcomes" has been the dominant theme here, and for me it's been a mixed bag of reactions—ranging from "of course advertisers want outcomes" to "that's not how you measure outcomes reliably."

Google has dominated outcomes for years through Google Analytics and Google Ads. Meta demonstrates outcomes brilliantly. The open web has struggled—and those struggles are both inflicted (Cookie deprecation! Privacy Sandbox! Apple tracking restrictions!) and self-inflicted (too much low quality inventory, the fallacy of disregarding inventory in how they show value).

In a great debate with Gareth, my belief that measurement is the number one issue for display, his that its a solved problem. I couldn't counter his point that: Meta kinda performs post-click. Display effectively never does, that needs to change. So whilst the best need a more reliable, incrementality based measurement system. Everyone needs a competent and widely used open web Conversion API. The rank and file need to trust that media will drive clicks that convert at least some of the time.

The Path Forward

I've said all along I doubt Google will be broken up. There's still a small chance AdX gets divested, but it'll take years.

Yet the future of open display has become clearer this week:

It needs to be able to show outcomes and compete post-click if it wants real budget scale. Ideally with a scaled conversion API. It needs better formats to drive these outcomes. Meta is showing the way forward here. It needs to be easy to drive outcomes. Don't skimp the customisation for the advanced buyers but it needs to be easy, low friction. It needs to lower the tech tax and stop selling quality next to knock off without adequate differentiation. It needs to be trusted. Less the wild west of old and more sanitised and gentrified. It needs to move on from the current DSP / SSP paradigm. Much shorter supply chains with fair data protection but better more reliable data on where the gold lies.

There's a lot of fear in the market. But also a huge amount of change in the air.

As the open web nears its biggest potential crisis point, there are genuine signs of a new future emerging. It needs to move quickly, the pace of change is ferocious. Yet for the first time in a while I am seeing a real desire to move forward.

What are you seeing at AdWeek? Where do you think display goes from here?

#AdWeek #AdTech #DigitalAdvertising #GoogleAntitrust #OpenWeb #Programmatic